The chances that James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas, will win the upcoming primary have soared after his interview with Stephen Colbert’s The Late Show was scrapped this week.
Talarico, 36, is a Presbyterian pastor who has garnered national recognition in recent months ahead of his contest with Representative Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic nomination in the midterms.
On Tuesday, Talarico’s interview with Colbert was scrapped, over concerns it would break the the Federal Communication Commission’s equal time rules, which require public broadcasters and radio stations to provide comparable airtime opportunities to opposing political candidates. The nearly 15-minute interview with the current state representative was later shared on Colbert’s YouTube channel and went viral.
Since then, betting platforms show that Talarico’s chances of winning the primary have increased.
Newsweek reached out to representatives for Talarico and Crockett by email for comment.
Why It Matters
Whoever wins the primary will hold responsibility for trying to lead the Democrats to electoral success in Texas amid a competitive Senate map. This year, Republicans are defending a 53-seat majority in the Senate, with 35 seats up for grabs. If the Democrats win the Senate, they can undermine President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and weaken his grip on power. However, analysis has suggested that the GOP will maintain control and the Texas seat is reliably Republican.
The Talarico-Colbert situation comes after a series of actions taken against the media by President Donald Trump’s administration, including an FBI raid on the home of a Washington Post reporter and the arrest of journalists Don Lemon and Georgia Fort in Minneapolis last month.
What To Know
According to predictions market platform Polymarket, Talarico has a 78 percent chance of winning the primary while Crockett has a 22 percent chance. On February 15, Talarico led Crockett by 10 percentage points.
Betting platform Kalshi gave Talarico odds of 76 percent on Thursday to Crockett’s 24 percent. On February 14, their chances were 61 percent and 40 percent, respectively.
The Hill, citing Talarico’s campaign, reported that he raised $2.5 million in the 24 hours after his interview with Colbert.
Early voting has begun, and the primary takes place on March 3.
What People Are Saying
Stephen Colbert, on Tuesday: “We obeyed our network and put the interview on YouTube, where it’s gotten millions of views. And I can see why. Talarico is an interesting guy. I don’t know if he should be the senator, but it was a good discussion. I wish we could have put it on the show, where no one would’ve watched it.”
CBS, in a statement: “The Late Show was not prohibited by CBS from broadcasting the interview with Rep James Talarico. The show was provided legal guidance that the broadcast could trigger the FCC equal-time rule for two other candidates… and presented options for how the equal time for other candidates could be fulfilled. The Late Show decided to present the interview through its YouTube channel with on-air promotion on the broadcast rather than potentially providing the equal-time options.”
FCC chair Brendan Carr told reporters on Wednesday: “Congress passed the equal time provision for a very specific reason. They didn’t want the media elites in Hollywood and New York to put their thumb on the scale and pick the winners and losers in primaries in general elections. That’s the whole point.
“If you have a legally qualified candidate on, you have to give comparable air time to all other legally qualified candidates, and we’re going to apply that law.”
What Happens Next
The Democratic and Republican primaries in Texas are scheduled for March 3, with runoff elections set for May 26, if no candidate secures a majority.
Recent polling suggests that regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the GOP will win the Senate election in November.
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