Even as Wes Streeting protested his loyalty to Keir Starmer this week, saying in an interview, “Give the guy a chance,” one of his supporters sent a WhatsApp message to Alan Lockey, the prime minister’s speechwriter, to ask if he would help Streeting’s campaign in the event of a leadership contest.
The message was sent “in error”, according to The Times, by one of Streeting’s “outriders”. The curse of WhatsApp strikes again. The ease of instant messaging means that it is tempting to write down things that should be reserved for voice calls, not least because of the danger of sending them to the wrong person.
“Outrider” is an interesting word, though, implying that the message was sent by an enthusiastic supporter without Streeting’s knowledge, while at the same time suggesting that the health secretary is indeed preparing for a leadership election.
This is something that No 10 sources have alleged for some months, with at least one of them claiming that Starmer is so incensed by what he sees as Streeting’s treachery that he intends to sack him in the next reshuffle.
But in fact there is no contradiction between what Streeting said in Wednesday’s interview and his preparation to fight a leadership campaign. “I don’t want to see Keir challenged in May,” he said. “I don’t think that will happen.”
He doesn’t think there will be a leadership contest, but he needs to be ready in case there is one. His message is that he is not going to start a fight, but if Somebody Else does, he is ready to join the fray. It is a message aimed partly at that Somebody Else, otherwise known as Angela Rayner, and partly at his own supporters.
I think he is right that Rayner will not challenge Starmer after the May elections, however badly they go for Labour. She needs 81 MPs to nominate her publicly to trigger a leadership election. Before the Iran war, I didn’t think she would have the numbers; now I think it is even less likely.
It seems self-indulgent for the Labour Party to choose to tear itself apart at a time of international crisis. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is open by 7 May, the economic destruction caused by the war will still be growing.
As we report today, the war has also improved Starmer’s standing a little. A JL Partners poll exclusively for The Independent found that voters were much more likely to rate the prime minister positively if they were reminded of his differences with Donald Trump.
The war has bought Starmer some time, therefore, but the underlying questions about his leadership will not go away. When the full extent of Peter Mandelson’s unsuitability as ambassador to Washington became clear last month, the Labour Party went into a spasm, prompting the downfall of Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff. Labour MPs thought about a change of leader, but realised that Rayner would be the most likely winner of the vote among party members, and decided against it.
That meant, I thought, that Starmer would probably survive until next year. The war has made the prime minister more secure for longer, and yet it seems unlikely that he will lead the party into the next election – in which case the issue of the succession remains live and, for the candidates, urgent.
Hence the interest in what the two leading contenders were up to this week. Rayner gave a “class war” speech on Monday, urging the party to “pick more fights”, then tacked in the opposite direction by recording a podcast with Michael Gove, her predecessor as housing secretary, in which they explored the common ground between them on leaseholders’ and tenants’ rights.
More important, though, was Streeting’s week. There he was in Golders Green, after four Jewish charity ambulances were destroyed by arson, sounding very like a prime minister.
Then he was a breath of fresh air on the BBC’s Today programme, sparring with Nick Robinson with style and a light touch. He talked about draining the swamp, and when Robinson asked what the swamp was, he said, “Cynicism, and you’re swimming in it.” But he avoided bitterness by accepting that Robinson was only doing his job.
The most important event in Streeting’s week, though, was the publication of figures showing that patient satisfaction with the NHS has risen. The British Social Attitudes survey is the gold standard of public opinion research, and this is one of the best ways to measure the output of the health service overall. Admittedly, satisfaction has gone up from a low base, and is still low in historical terms.
But the idea that the NHS is turning a corner could be hugely significant if it is maintained over the next year. We know that Streeting is a good communicator, but if he can show that he is also delivering the change that people care about, the soft left in Labour – particularly among grassroots party members – is going to have to realise where the party’s interest lies. They realise that it is not with Rayner, however impressive she is. They know that it is probably not with Starmer in the longer run. The answer is staring them in the face.
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